Privatised Space and the “Interplanetary Species” obsession

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For several years now, Elon Musk, and many of his fans and fellow-travellers have been making much of the need for humans to establish colonies in space, and become an “interplanetary species”.

I do want to be clear that I am not completely opposed to spaceflight per se. The use of space technologies has given us things of tremendous value. Advances like satellite navigation, search and rescue beacons, weather and environmental monitoring are of undoubted benefit, and particular developments like GPS/Galileo/Glonass and COSPAS-SARSAT can genuinely be things that can be said to be truly for the good of all and be rightly regarded as one of the things we can and should be proud of as a species. That said, I’d like to see what the thoughts of others are here at the Tree of Souls, on this quest by these self-proclaimed geniuses? I personally don’t feel comfortable with it, from several perspectives.

Most importantly to me is that the idea of space colonization, i.e. a human society living permanently in space (be it on another world or in a floating metal box) is clear cultural failure that has allowed a total disconnect of ourselves from the environment we belong to, originate from, and have been shaped to live within. We cannot survive in the airless, weightlessness of space, nor the frozen, toxic environment of Mars. We are meant to survive and live on Earth, and to deny that tie to our home forever condemns the descendent of those people to an eternity of misery eeking out an existence on processed air and survival rations in a closed, airtight metal box surrendered by an alien environment hostile to life itself.

Secondly, this concept seems to rely on the assumption that Earth is doomed. This concerns me on two levels, and both come down to the issue of responsibility. In the first instance, we are part of Earth – one of the innumerable species that make up this ball of life and beauty. As part of this whole, we are responsible for the well-being of it. We can’t but also must not avoid our responsibility in trying to heal the problems of this world, especially as (second point), we are the ones responsible for it in the first place. We caused this destruction and it is on us to fix it. This is our obligation to all life on Earth, down to and including ourselves. As an additional point in this theme, until we learn to take responsibility for our actions here, on the world we belong to, how can we realistically expect to take responsibility for an alien world that is no relation of ours?

Thidly, while national space agencies have traditionally focused on scientific and academic study of space, these are private ventures led by explicitly for-profit companies that seek private gain. While contracting has long been a part of space exploration and is part and parcel of any self-respecting industrial late-capitalist dystopia, the desire of private, for-profit corporates to specifically get into space colonization is profoundly disturbing. This opens up a slew of questions over the rights and wellbeing of the colony inhabitants, especially given the vast resources and costs needed to keep even a single individual alive out there. What of the world the colony is on? Despite the dubious viability of such ventures, if they are even possible (more below on that!), the only remotely feasible source of profit would be strip mining for resources that are rare and unknown on Earth but have potentially valuable uses in industry (such as Tritium) – an activity that even on Earth, where oversight is somewhat possible, doesn’t have an enviable reputation of respecting either it’s workers or the world in general. Putting gilded age robber-baron company towns in space doesn’t magcially make their horrific flaws disappear, it just makes them worse. When Elon Musk said he wants to be the “Imperator of Mars”, it is quite possibly the only honest thing he’s ever said.

Fourth, the countless financial, mental and physcial resources being wasted by this insane quest are draining expertise, focus, finance and real resources away from where they are needed. Much as this is a private, for-profit venture by Musk, Bezos and co., they are, in best capitalist style, doing it with giant wads of public bailouts, grants, contracts and concessions. These resources as desperately needed on Earth to tackle the problems of our own making, rather than expanding the scope of our destruction to new worlds.

Finally, all this might well be for naught. One of the big issues, especially with Musk, but with many other grifters of the techbro variety, is grossly overestimating the technology humans posess, and the scale of the issues of space colonisation. Humans don’t handle exponential mathematics well, and space colonisation is full of such issues. Mars is, of course, not “the next step” after Luna. The sheer difference in distance involved is hard to grasp and frequently ignored . The difference between shipping half a dozen highly trained, professional, disciplined astronauts to low earth orbit for a six month stint in a science outpost is a tad different to sending one million fare-paying civilians to Mars for the rest of their lives (along with all the belongings fare-paying passengers expect to take). And again, the difference is trivialised. The threat of radiation is trivialised. Same with microgravity. Same with shelter, food, mental health, reproductive health… and so on. And if Earth is "doomed" because of our mistakes, then these "interplantary species" humans will only outlast their mother world by a few months. Once the last supply ship is gone and it's cargo finished, the "interplantary species" will too be finished.

My feelings are that the governments and space agencies of the world should come together to give a clear message that space colonization is neither possible or practical with current or near-mature technology, nor is it a desirable project. It should be made clear that no private colonization effort will have any legality or legitimacy. We should work toward a system similar to the Antarctic Treaty System to be applied to all celestial bodies – limiting human activity to scientific/academic research and conservation only, as well as setting up clear standards for non-contamination of these worlds, and of absolute protection for any life identified.
 

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On an additional thought, it'd be amazing if the public money poured into these ventures to be to be put into an international fund to do something truly meaningful towards a major step to healing the harm caused by industrial hubris. Musks' companies alone have been sloshed with at least US$7,000,000,000 just from US public funds. Restoring the Aral Sea - probably one of the greatest envrionmental disasters of the 20th century - by completing and then going beyond the already hugely sucessful but largely ignored Kazakh/World Bank restoration project in the North Aral would easily be covered by this money - with billions left over to give us what we all deserve... to go diving on the wrecks of the old Soviet fishing fleet, once stranded in the middle of a desert and now once again under the blue waters of a fully restored Aral Sea, homes to the fish they once hunted.
 
I'm pretty much with you on all counts, and I say that as someone who once dreamed of being able to go to Mars as a kid. I have no faith in private companies and billionaires doing beneficial things in space after doing so many bad things on Earth. The satirical illustration of a private space venture painted by Don't Look Up comes to mind.

I do like your idea of a kind of Antarctic Treaty System for space. I thought that there was something like that already, but I'm probably mistaken.
 
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I...uh... "just looked up" that movie and, yep... sounds pretty much how I'd expect that sort of scenario to go! I've got to see that now...
 
I must say I disagree with most points in this thread :). Call me an Earth-destroying-capitalist, but I believe there is no turning back for humanity. We can't just go back to being a pre-industrial society. It just doesn't work that way because humans have always strived to outdo eachother and make their own lives better. That is our nature. So why shouldn't we embrace that?

The following quote from the movie Interstellar comes to mind if I try to summarize my mindset: "We used to look up at the sky and wonder at our place in the stars. Now we just look down, and worry about our place in the dirt."

If we truly were to look only down instead of up, then I don't think it will end well for humanity and the planet Earth. Humanity is for now tied to the planet and if we destroy ourselves, the Earth or a large part of it would be destroyed as well.

The use of space technologies has given us things of tremendous value.
Exactly, and the effect it has truly had on human society and technology is not to be underestimated.

Secondly, this concept seems to rely on the assumption that Earth is doomed.
I don't agree. Did Europeans colonize the Americas because Europe was doomed? I admit colonization brings the good, the bad and the ugly (that is simply what humanity is), but for space colonization its goal is to become self-sufficient and sustainable. We can't do science in space without funding and government funding is extremely limited. It's exactly the reason the moon-landings were halted, although the technology was there and could have been developed further without first wasting 35 years on the Space Shuttle that risked human lives just to put satellites in orbit.

Thidly, while national space agencies have traditionally focused on scientific and academic study of space, these are private ventures led by explicitly for-profit companies that seek private gain.
I would like to point out that with government funding alone, the progress in space technology has been limited to non-existent. NASA is developing Orion and SpaceX (Musk) is developing Starship. The difference between the two is frankly astounding. NASA is trying to develop what is essentially a slightly larger Apollo spacecraft. SpaceX is doing things that have never been done before, the Starship and its eventual capabilities is going to be mind-blowing, and it is being achieved by for-profit companies. The innovation of SpaceX in space technology is in my view unparalleled.

When Elon Musk said he wants to be the “Imperator of Mars”, it is quite possibly the only honest thing he’s ever said.
I could die happy driving a dune buggy through the Martian wasteland chasing raggedy men out of Elontown for our master Imperator Musk :). But on a more serious note: I don't personally like Elon Musk. I don't care about the man himself. I care about that he uses his capitalist influence to steer humanity towards a new path by making all these new space innovations possible. And I don't believe the thousands of enthusiastic research, development and production employees are working on these projects just because they want to work for shady capitalists.

Finally, all this might well be for naught. One of the big issues, especially with Musk, but with many other grifters of the techbro variety, is grossly overestimating the technology humans posess, and the scale of the issues of space colonisation.
I wouldn't underestimate our technology either. I agree we are not there yet to realize all that Musk is promising, but if we don't start at one point, it will never happen. We need to learn and develop by doing things for real and that means going out into space again, beyond low Earth orbit. From there we will learn.

Most importantly to me is that the idea of space colonization, i.e. a human society living permanently in space (be it on another world or in a floating metal box) is clear cultural failure that has allowed a total disconnect of ourselves from the environment we belong to, originate from, and have been shaped to live within. We cannot survive in the airless, weightlessness of space, nor the frozen, toxic environment of Mars. We are meant to survive and live on Earth, and to deny that tie to our home forever condemns the descendent of those people to an eternity of misery eeking out an existence on processed air and survival rations in a closed, airtight metal box surrendered by an alien environment hostile to life itself.
It depends on the person. I agree it isn't for everyone, but I managed to live for almost two years in what is in essence a concrete box mostly by myself during COVID and I'm fine. I think being away from "what we take for granted" on the Earth will remind us of how precious resources and the environment really are and technologies developed to create for example oxygen farms on spacecraft or in space colonies could be useful to restore the Earth's biosphere eventually.

I think traveling to space changes people's mindsets (the overview effect), where they realize how precious the Earth really is. The interviews with some Apollo astronauts from the documentary In the Shadow of the Moon come to my mind, especially Edgar Mitchell who mentioned an "explosion of awareness" and an "overwhelming sense of oneness and connectedness... accompanied by an ecstasy... an epiphany"

I don't know if any of you ever played the game SimEarth? It is like SimCity, but on planet scale. I would like to use it to explain the path I think humanity should follow to save the Earth:

The game starts with a planet that forms from interstellar dust and it will under the right circumstances develop life, experience an explosion of evolution, and can eventually end up with a sapient species that will advance from the stone-age to the industrial age and beyond. Eventually, the sapient species (whether they are reptiles, insects, mammals or even flesh-eating plants) start using up all resources of the planet, until they reach the "nanotech age" after which technology allows all cities to be fitted with engines and giant glass domes. At this point they all launch away from the planet, which by that time likely still has several billion years worth of life in its sun. The planet will then resume natural evolution as if the sapient species was never there.

Of course, the game is somewhat simplistic and at some points unrealistic, but the point I am trying to make is that Earth is stuck with us (humanity) for now. If we don't do anything, if we don't change our attitude and our focus, it will be stuck with us forever. Why shouldn't we focus our efforts on trying to leave it to learn more about the universe, so that in the (far) future it is less burdened with our presence?

And regarding invading other planets, we have been trying for decades to find out if places like Mars contain life. So far it has proven to be difficult to ascertain this. If we go there ourselves, there is so much more we can do to find that out. I don't think there is any life there and maybe that would be best. Not only would the planet not be "owned" by native inhabitants (single celled life or otherwise), it would also strengthen the view that we really are alone out there and thus need to conserve what we have on Earth.

I believe it has to get worse first for the Earth before it can get better. And capitalists such as Musk and Bezos, regardless of their morals, they are jump-starting the next phase in humanity's history.
 

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I must say I disagree with most points in this thread :). Call me an Earth-destroying-capitalist, but I believe there is no turning back for humanity. We can't just go back to being a pre-industrial society. It just doesn't work that way because humans have always strived to outdo eachother and make their own lives better. That is our nature. So why shouldn't we embrace that?

You're an Earth-destroying-capitalist - There ya go! :D (does that need Initial Capital Letters or not? :D )

I don't think we need to or realistically can become a truly / properly de-industrialised society. There are definite benefits from some of the technologies we've discovered, including rocketry, not to mention things like industrial medicine. However, whatever western culture has been doing, it has demonstrably failed in it's most important endeavour - that of, as you correctly say, giving a better life. As such, we certainly need to have a long look at our culture and it's future. We need to be selective and thoughtful about what things we keep, what we discard, and what we want to put effort into developing. Colonising space is essentially following our current trajectory with business as usual, rather than having that good long look at ourselves in the cold light of day. It is not a new era... just more of the same, but with no air to breathe (so yep - literally more of the same, I guess!)

The following quote from the movie Interstellar comes to mind if I try to summarize my mindset: "We used to look up at the sky and wonder at our place in the stars. Now we just look down, and worry about our place in the dirt."

If we truly were to look only down instead of up, then I don't think it will end well for humanity and the planet Earth. Humanity is for now tied to the planet and if we destroy ourselves, the Earth or a large part of it would be destroyed as well.

If humans were to try and colonise Mars, or even Luna, the sheer quantity of resources needed to create anything approaching a complex society with the veneer of viability would almost doubtless tip Earth over the edge. We are for all intents and purposes a closed system (bar random meteorites), as most worlds are. Both Luna and Mars are sterile, lifeless rocks, and devoid of many of the mineral and organic materials needed to sustain life , meaning that vast quantities of resources will need to be removed from our world to try and prop up a company town on Mars. Not even just food - basic construction and manufacturing materials like wood products (i.e. paper, fibreboard, cellulose), plastics, pretty much any textiles (even synthetics) would need to be removed from Earth and taken to Mars. For small scientific missions, this is never going to be a problem, but once you start talking about millions of people it gets very unsustainable very quickly (not to mention the social/economic aspects - i.e. economic viability)
I don't agree. Did Europeans colonize the Americas because Europe was doomed? I admit colonization brings the good, the bad and the ugly (that is simply what humanity is), but for space colonization its goal is to become self-sufficient and sustainable. We can't do science in space without funding and government funding is extremely limited. It's exactly the reason the moon-landings were halted, although the technology was there and could have been developed further without first wasting 35 years on the Space Shuttle that risked human lives just to put satellites in orbit.

To be fair, the record of colonisation on Earth is pretty much an unmitigated disaster. The destruction it wrought to the "New World" was apocolyptic in scale to all life it encountered, and the societies that emerged from it continue to haunted and strained by the legacy of it to this day. Space colonialism doesn't threaten any pre-existing life we know of (at least on Mars and Luna), but their "new world" socieities cannot realistically sustain themselves. Much like a mining outpost in the desert or jungle, it's a company town with almost everything shipped in, completely under the control of and dependent on it's corporate sponsor for it's survival (which is not a position anyone should ever exist in - the full implications of this beyond any realistic legal jurisdiction is horiffic)... except that there's not really a product to ship back home, making it all somewhat redundant.

I could die happy driving a dune buggy through the Martian wasteland chasing raggedy men out of Elontown for our master Imperator Musk :).

Yeah, I mean tbqh I'd die happy in a wood and palm leaf shelter in the middle of Daintree with just my dog, my knife, my bow and a firesteel so weirdly enough, I get the sentiment :)
I wouldn't underestimate our technology either. I agree we are not there yet to realize all that Musk is promising, but if we don't start at one point, it will never happen. We need to learn and develop by doing things for real and that means going out into space again, beyond low Earth orbit. From there we will learn.
I think the kind of jump needed is probably more than a lot of people realise. I do have an interest in the engineering side of rocketry, so it's not something I dismiss out of hand. There are some interesting technologies that lie within our knowledge of physics, but we lack the cultural tools to be able to develop them. For all the showmanship, SpaceX has essentially been playing with the same technology others have for decades, and doing so using the same funding playbook. The more advanced concepts for propulsion require tremendous amount of pure research with incredibly long horizons for any hope of a final "product" (hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, rewriting of numerous treaties at the UN level, amind other massive issues), that still wouldn't have a specific need (having the ability to go to Mars wouldn't make the place any more valuable to humans - it's still low in resources and a dead world). The reason SpaceX found a profitable product with their Falcon9 is that it does actually get things to a place humans find value in. LEO is useful for many purposes, as is MEO and GEO. Beyond that, the law of diminishing returns (and increased effort) kicks in very agressively.

Technology aside, there are also issues with leaving humans in space long term. Our attachment to Earth isn't just philosophical or ethical, but very real. We can't live in microgravity for long. Even going to the ISS for a fixed tour (6-12 months) is brutal to the human body, even with trained and conditioned professionals on an intensive workout routine. Realistically, any human having spent years (or being born, if possible) in low or microgravity would likely be killed or crippled by the launch to come to home, and horiffic experience if they made it back (instantly weighing three times your current bodyweight, while simultaneously feeling the full effects of acute osteoporosis). Beyond Earth's magnetic field, the entire space envrionment is subject to extreme levels of radiation, as is the surface of any world without a similar field to our own (neither Mars nor Luna posess this). The ISS is protected by Earth, but beyond our protective field, visits by professional crews to another world on a specific mission is a calculated risk. For permanent settlment, this pretty much eliminates the idea of a self sustaining colony as sterility would be all but universal, as would early death.

We evolved within and have been shaped by our world, for our world. We can build machines to explore other worlds, and but it's probably best to leave it at that - in the same way that much as I love diving, and playing around in 30m or so is interesting and fun (much like visiting LEO), trying to take scuba gear and go live in the Marianas Trench.... yeah, prob not a good idea.

I don't know if any of you ever played the game SimEarth?
[...]
Of course, the game is somewhat simplistic and at some points unrealistic, but the point I am trying to make is that Earth is stuck with us (humanity) for now. If we don't do anything, if we don't change our attitude and our focus, it will be stuck with us forever. Why shouldn't we focus our efforts on trying to leave it to learn more about the universe, so that in the (far) future it is less burdened with our presence?

We choose not to fit in with other life. It does not have to be so. We can choose to fit in and live quite happily and peacefully doing so, and in time we can be the ultimate protectors of Earth. We are the only species capable of stopping asteroids and comets. It would be an admirable use of our know how.

And regarding invading other planets, we have been trying for decades to find out if places like Mars contain life. So far it has proven to be difficult to ascertain this. If we go there ourselves, there is so much more we can do to find that out. I don't think there is any life there and maybe that would be best. Not only would the planet not be "owned" by native inhabitants (single celled life or otherwise), it would also strengthen the view that we really are alone out there and thus need to conserve what we have on Earth.

I agree it would be for the best if Mars has no life, as it seems not to. Sending humans, along with our whole microbiome to another world to see if it does have life, however, is not wise. . Risking contaminating either world with invasive life from the other is a bad idea. We know how that stuff goes from bitter experience.
 
As such, we certainly need to have a long look at our culture and it's future. We need to be selective and thoughtful about what things we keep, what we discard, and what we want to put effort into developing. Colonising space is essentially following our current trajectory with business as usual, rather than having that good long look at ourselves in the cold light of day. It is not a new era... just more of the same, but with no air to breathe (so yep - literally more of the same, I guess!)
I don't see how consciously changing culture can happen on a worldwide scale. It is exactly the reason why there are still different countries instead of a true united world government. That is why I say we should stick to our nature as a species and do what we are good at instead of trying to change. Individuals can change for the better, but there will be others to exploit that. I think the species could maybe start to change after many people have gone into space, to the moon, Mars and beyond, and experienced the overview effect and then spread that awareness to the rest.

Both Luna and Mars are sterile, lifeless rocks, and devoid of many of the mineral and organic materials needed to sustain life , meaning that vast quantities of resources will need to be removed from our world to try and prop up a company town on Mars. Not even just food - basic construction and manufacturing materials like wood products (i.e. paper, fibreboard, cellulose), plastics, pretty much any textiles (even synthetics) would need to be removed from Earth and taken to Mars.
Mars can provide air, water and building materials locally. Food can be grown locally. Any special materials Mars cannot provide can be imported from Earth - if you are able and are going to send humans, then sending cargo itself isn't really that big of an issue anymore.

Much like a mining outpost in the desert or jungle, it's a company town with almost everything shipped in, completely under the control of and dependent on it's corporate sponsor for it's survival (which is not a position anyone should ever exist in - the full implications of this beyond any realistic legal jurisdiction is horiffic)... except that there's not really a product to ship back home, making it all somewhat redundant.
I don't see a reason to assume SpaceX intends to become Weyland Yutani, with Elon Musk becoming Mr. Weyland. The idea behind the Starship is that once the possibility of traveling to the moon and Mars is there, with a basic colony in place, there will be an incentive for third parties to go out into the frontier and set up whatever business they can get to work. I'm sure they can get some law enforcement forces in place.

I think the kind of jump needed is probably more than a lot of people realise. I do have an interest in the engineering side of rocketry, so it's not something I dismiss out of hand. There are some interesting technologies that lie within our knowledge of physics, but we lack the cultural tools to be able to develop them. For all the showmanship, SpaceX has essentially been playing with the same technology others have for decades, and doing so using the same funding playbook.
I don't think traveling to Mars requires a tremendous leap. SpaceX is taking the same techology and is actually building further on that. Which rockets were reusable before the Falcon 9? Who before SpaceX managed to land a free-falling chunk of metal the size of an apartment building (Starship) so neatly on the ground? After 35 years of the Space Shuttle, I think most people started to believe that development in space hardware couldn't happen, but I see quite the opposite happening here.

The more advanced concepts for propulsion require tremendous amount of pure research with incredibly long horizons for any hope of a final "product" (hundreds of billions, if not trillions of dollars, rewriting of numerous treaties at the UN level, amind other massive issues), that still wouldn't have a specific need (having the ability to go to Mars wouldn't make the place any more valuable to humans - it's still low in resources and a dead world). The reason SpaceX found a profitable product with their Falcon9 is that it does actually get things to a place humans find value in. LEO is useful for many purposes, as is MEO and GEO. Beyond that, the law of diminishing returns (and increased effort) kicks in very agressively.
More advanced concepts for propulsion do seem further away, I agree, but if the industry isn't brought back from 40+ years of non-development, the way SpaceX and the Starship are doing right now, then for sure it is never going to happen.

Law of diminishing returns... I don't agree this law is cast into concrete. In the early 20th century, nobody had a reason to go into LEO. People didn't see any returns from that. And here we are 100 years later. It is simply a matter of how big (or small) we are thinking.

Technology aside, there are also issues with leaving humans in space long term. Our attachment to Earth isn't just philosophical or ethical, but very real.
So far nothing definitive has been proven about the effects of Mars on humans. 0.38 g isn't 0 g. Shelters on Mars could be underground to limit radiation exposure. I won't claim leaving Earth is beneficial for human health, but we just don't know enough to jump to conclusions that this or that definitively isn't possible. We will never know if we don't try to find out.

We choose not to fit in with other life. It does not have to be so. We can choose to fit in and live quite happily and peacefully doing so, and in time we can be the ultimate protectors of Earth. We are the only species capable of stopping asteroids and comets. It would be an admirable use of our know how.
I definitely can see humanity diverge into two paths here with one side choosing the path that you are proposing and the other side choosing the path that I am proposing. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that both could happen together.

I agree it would be for the best if Mars has no life, as it seems not to. Sending humans, along with our whole microbiome to another world to see if it does have life, however, is not wise. . Risking contaminating either world with invasive life from the other is a bad idea. We know how that stuff goes from bitter experience.
If there is life on Mars it is extremely likely that it simply originated from Earth and was transported there via ejected meteors. I don't see how contaminating the Martian surface would be a problem; I don't see an ecosystem there that could be disturbed. And if there is an undiscovered ecosystem, say underneath the surface, it will be hard to disturb simply because it would be so hard to reach.
 

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I don't see how consciously changing culture can happen on a worldwide scale.

Cultural change is not a formal process. Our laws and regulations are simply a delayed reflection of what a culture values at any given time. A good example is western attitudes towards sexuality, which shifted markedly within a few decades, and spread across multiple language groups in the wider western culture. This led to legal and governmental change in different states as response to a cultural shift, not vice versa. There was some degree of deliberate activism, but this only represented a tiny subgroup – most of the shift was organic and not even really actively thought about by many people. Once a shift starts, the population will generally follow along as most want to stay within the cultural norm.

Mars can provide air, water and building materials locally. Food can be grown locally. Any special materials Mars cannot provide can be imported from Earth - if you are able and are going to send humans, then sending cargo itself isn't really that big of an issue anymore.


The issue is that Earth is an essentially closed system (like Mars), and shipping resources from Earth in the kind of quantities needed to create a pseudo-self-sustaining Mars colony (which in the Muskian vision is a million people within a few decades of founding) is removing these resources from Earth's cycles permanently. The larger the colony gets, the pressures on Earth get worse, not better. Mars does have a few resources, but lacks many essentials – i.e. nitrogen, so all food will rely on imported fertilisers, and even then only with the most basic crops with simple needs – forget about fruits, berries and nuts (or rice, cotton, flax etc). Water is extremely limited and very hard to extract and purify, requiring lots of energy, which is also in short supply (no hydro, no biofuels, no fossil fuels, essentially no wind, low solar potential due to distance from the sun and global dust storms)

And even with their base ration and concrete, they will still be trapped in the same box, and enjoy no variation in diet, clothing, personal possessions, space or environment, as will their children, if they can reproduce.

More advanced concepts for propulsion do seem further away, I agree, but if the industry isn't brought back from 40+ years of non-development, the way SpaceX and the Starship are doing right now, then for sure it is never going to happen.

Without renegotiating non-proliferation/SALT and space treaties at the UN level to allow private individuals to hold large numbers nuclear warheads and delivery systems in Earth orbit, it’s going to hard for the privateers (or governments, for that matter) to get their hands on nuclear impulse propulsion, which is the only truly transformational option to get the increase in isp and thrust needed out of an engine for this sort of venture. This is where we don’t have the cultural tools to do this. Cost, arms races, nuclear proliferation, and the risk of disasters repeatedly killed earlier attempts to introduce it. At the end of the day, it’s a doomsday weapon wearing Star Trek cosplay. Starship itself isn't a road along this path in the same way upgrading your Landcruiser from a V6 to a V8 isn't getting it closer to being a hybrid (but dear gods do I still want a 70-series - my guilty consumerist dream). However, I don't regard Starship as a failure on that level, as my view is that it was and is mainly an advertisement for the company to win grants and VC funding.

So far nothing definitive has been proven about the effects of Mars on humans. 0.38 g isn't 0 g. Shelters on Mars could be underground to limit radiation exposure.

It’s true we don’t know for certain how it’ll be harmful – but we can make informed projections based on what we know – that microgravity is very harmful, and that exposure to ionising radiation is very harmful. We know there are no real cures for the ills they cause us. Astronauts only ever recover about half of the bone loss they suffer on ISS missions, when receiving intensive therapy back home with true gravity, making the chances of this level of recovery extremely low on Mars, and pretty much zero on Luna.

We also know that to get to Mars the crew will experience ~9 months of microgravity, with intense radiation exposure both en-route and anytime on Luna and Mars when they are not sheltering underground. We also know the psychological effects of extreme isolation and stress cause, and we know they will be subject to both. So we can objectively say, with confidence, their physical and mental health will be worse than it was on Earth, for any given individual.

We can and do accept these trade-offs for professionals with a fixed-duration mission, but imposing this on a civilian for life, and on any children they can create, renders colonisation somewhat pointless. We hope to create a better outcome and environment for all life. But we know humans will suffer when removed from Earth. We don’t know how much or the exact details, but we know they’ll suffer, mentally, socially and physically.

I definitely can see humanity diverge into two paths here with one side choosing the path that you are proposing and the other side choosing the path that I am proposing. I wouldn't rule out the possibility that both could happen together.

I think the issue is that could be fine (at least from the POV of us here on Earth) in a far future where the colonisers possess Star Trek replicators Insta-terraformers or something like that. We both could exist effectively as two cultures completely independent of one another. But, realistically, the foreseeable future of colonisation conflicts with the needs of Earth. At the end of the day, we do want to minimise suffering and ensure life is as good as it can be for all, and a colonial plan can’t avoid exploiting Earth (in terms of raw materials, but also financially, taking a lot of work and effort to ship them material, equipment and replacement settlers) to keep as much of their colony alive as possible, harming both Earth and themselves in the process.

Supporting scientific curiosity and a desire to learn about space is both doable and commendable – we’ve been doing it for decades with projects like Hubble, JWST, Cassini, New Horizons and Voyager – and even manned missions have given us huge benefits - but Musks’ Million Man March to Mars is an entirely different scenario and really just exacerbates the problems we are all facing, should it ever actually happen. It just doesn’t scale up. If we seeking to get better outcomes for all life, Mars is not a good place to look.

If an asteroid hit Earth, she'd still have more and better life than Mars. But we are ethically obligated to learn how to stop that, and we can do so much more easily than we could colonise Mars anyway. And we're getting there - we've already proven the basic concept in real life.
 
Cultural change is not a formal process.
My point was that cultural change is hard to steer into a definitive outcome, especially an outcome where capitalism is discarded in favor of something better. I don't see it happening that the main driver of most people, which is making as much money as possible, is ever going to change.

Mars does have a few resources, but lacks many essentials – i.e. nitrogen, so all food will rely on imported fertilisers, and even then only with the most basic crops with simple needs – forget about fruits, berries and nuts (or rice, cotton, flax etc). Water is extremely limited and very hard to extract and purify, requiring lots of energy, which is also in short supply (no hydro, no biofuels, no fossil fuels, essentially no wind, low solar potential due to distance from the sun and global dust storms)
Nitrogen is very abundant in the solar system and is known to be locked in mineral deposits on Mars. Water might not be present everywhere on Mars, but there is plenty of water ice near the polar regions. The way to go for energy on Mars would be geothermal energy. It will take effort to set up the infrastructure for that, but there is definitely potential.

And even with their base ration and concrete, they will still be trapped in the same box, and enjoy no variation in diet, clothing, personal possessions, space or environment, as will their children, if they can reproduce.
That depends on who is running the place, who is inhabiting the place, what is invested in enrichment, and what kind of local culture develops. I am personally pretty much content which very little variation. I could eat the same thing everyday and be content. It depends on what kind of people go there.

which in the Muskian vision is a million people within a few decades of founding
It is known that Musk likes to overstate things somewhat. I don't think a million in a few decades ever was the actual goal. I would be very surprised and impressed if 100.000 is managed in the next fifty years. Still, even 1000 would be a huge step forward from the current 0.

Without renegotiating non-proliferation/SALT and space treaties at the UN level to allow private individuals to hold large numbers nuclear warheads and delivery systems in Earth orbit, it’s going to hard for the privateers (or governments, for that matter) to get their hands on nuclear impulse propulsion, which is the only truly transformational option to get the increase in isp and thrust needed out of an engine for this sort of venture. This is where we don’t have the cultural tools to do this.
Agreed that the Orion drive and the nukes needed for that would be unlikely to ever be allowed to end up in private hands. I think that with Musk and SpaceX focusing on Mars, the governmental space organizations like NASA, ESA, etc would be good candidates to look further into that technology. I do see nuclear pulse propulsion as something unlikely to happen because of the legal aspect. This does come back a bit to my earlier point that culture change is hard to steer; changing people's opinion about nukes will not be easy. But I fully agree that it would be best to get rid of the thousands of nukes on Earth in a way that makes them useful.

It’s true we don’t know for certain how it’ll be harmful – but we can make informed projections based on what we know
Radiation and gravity are challenges and they will affect the health of people, but I think this is something that has to be accepted as it comes with the territory. In time, they can develop better ways to mitigate their effects as we learn more about them. And who is to say we cannot adapt to the gravity aspect at least? It hasn't been proven or disproven.

We can and do accept these trade-offs for professionals with a fixed-duration mission, but imposing this on a civilian for life, and on any children they can create, renders colonisation somewhat pointless. We hope to create a better outcome and environment for all life. But we know humans will suffer when removed from Earth. We don’t know how much or the exact details, but we know they’ll suffer, mentally, socially and physically.
Nobody would be forced to go to Mars, I think :) Everyone going would do so fully knowing about what they would face. I still think from the billions of people on Earth, it would be easy to find a million volunteers who would happily want to go to Mars. And I think it greatly depends on people's personalities whether they suffer or thrive in isolation. I am convinced that people with the right mindset can adapt mentally and socially and they don't need to be trained professionals for that.

But, realistically, the foreseeable future of colonisation conflicts with the needs of Earth. At the end of the day, we do want to minimise suffering and ensure life is as good as it can be for all, and a colonial plan can’t avoid exploiting Earth (in terms of raw materials, but also financially, taking a lot of work and effort to ship them material, equipment and replacement settlers) to keep as much of their colony alive as possible, harming both Earth and themselves in the process.
Earth is exploited right now as well, for completely destructive purposes even, such as the war in Ukraine. I think the dream of new places to be explored and civilized outside the Earth has the potential to change a lot of world views and make such conflicts less frequent or less intense as people become less motivated by an Earth-only focus. I can also see that it brings forth a completely new industry that creates a lot of new jobs and opportunities. And perhaps not all resources will end up having to come from Earth (think about Ceres and the asteroid belt)

If an asteroid hit Earth, she'd still have more and better life than Mars. But we are ethically obligated to learn how to stop that, and we can do so much more easily than we could colonise Mars anyway. And we're getting there - we've already proven the basic concept in real life.
There needs to be an engine to drive new development. Musk is starting that engine. We should consider that colonizing Mars is not the end goal, rather the means to an end - the real end being humans having developed a far more advanced and far more capable space-faring industry that could help the Earth also. Stopping asteroids would be a lot easier if capitalists saw a profit in it. That is what I mean with embracing our nature.
 
For several years now, Elon Musk, and many of his fans and fellow-travellers have been making much of the need for humans to establish colonies in space, and become an “interplanetary species”.

I do want to be clear that I am not completely opposed to spaceflight per se. The use of space technologies has given us things of tremendous value. Advances like satellite navigation, search and rescue beacons, weather and environmental monitoring are of undoubted benefit, and particular developments like GPS/Galileo/Glonass and COSPAS-SARSAT can genuinely be things that can be said to be truly for the good of all and be rightly regarded as one of the things we can and should be proud of as a species. That said, I’d like to see what the thoughts of others are here at the Tree of Souls, on this quest by these self-proclaimed geniuses? I personally don’t feel comfortable with it, from several perspectives.

Most importantly to me is that the idea of space colonization, i.e. a human society living permanently in space (be it on another world or in a floating metal box) is clear cultural failure that has allowed a total disconnect of ourselves from the environment we belong to, originate from, and have been shaped to live within. We cannot survive in the airless, weightlessness of space, nor the frozen, toxic environment of Mars. We are meant to survive and live on Earth, and to deny that tie to our home forever condemns the descendent of those people to an eternity of misery eeking out an existence on processed air and survival rations in a closed, airtight metal box surrendered by an alien environment hostile to life itself.

Secondly, this concept seems to rely on the assumption that Earth is doomed. This concerns me on two levels, and both come down to the issue of responsibility. In the first instance, we are part of Earth – one of the innumerable species that make up this ball of life and beauty. As part of this whole, we are responsible for the well-being of it. We can’t but also must not avoid our responsibility in trying to heal the problems of this world, especially as (second point), we are the ones responsible for it in the first place. We caused this destruction and it is on us to fix it. This is our obligation to all life on Earth, down to and including ourselves. As an additional point in this theme, until we learn to take responsibility for our actions here, on the world we belong to, how can we realistically expect to take responsibility for an alien world that is no relation of ours?

Thidly, while national space agencies have traditionally focused on scientific and academic study of space, these are private ventures led by explicitly for-profit companies that seek private gain. While contracting has long been a part of space exploration and is part and parcel of any self-respecting industrial late-capitalist dystopia, the desire of private, for-profit corporates to specifically get into space colonization is profoundly disturbing. This opens up a slew of questions over the rights and wellbeing of the colony inhabitants, especially given the vast resources and costs needed to keep even a single individual alive out there. What of the world the colony is on? Despite the dubious viability of such ventures, if they are even possible (more below on that!), the only remotely feasible source of profit would be strip mining for resources that are rare and unknown on Earth but have potentially valuable uses in industry (such as Tritium) – an activity that even on Earth, where oversight is somewhat possible, doesn’t have an enviable reputation of respecting either it’s workers or the world in general. Putting gilded age robber-baron company towns in space doesn’t magcially make their horrific flaws disappear, it just makes them worse. When Elon Musk said he wants to be the “Imperator of Mars”, it is quite possibly the only honest thing he’s ever said.

Fourth, the countless financial, mental and physcial resources being wasted by this insane quest are draining expertise, focus, finance and real resources away from where they are needed. Much as this is a private, for-profit venture by Musk, Bezos and co., they are, in best capitalist style, doing it with giant wads of public bailouts, grants, contracts and concessions. These resources as desperately needed on Earth to tackle the problems of our own making, rather than expanding the scope of our destruction to new worlds.

Finally, all this might well be for naught. One of the big issues, especially with Musk, but with many other grifters of the techbro variety, is grossly overestimating the technology humans posess, and the scale of the issues of space colonisation. Humans don’t handle exponential mathematics well, and space colonisation is full of such issues. Mars is, of course, not “the next step” after Luna. The sheer difference in distance involved is hard to grasp and frequently ignored . The difference between shipping half a dozen highly trained, professional, disciplined astronauts to low earth orbit for a six month stint in a science outpost is a tad different to sending one million fare-paying civilians to Mars for the rest of their lives (along with all the belongings fare-paying passengers expect to take). And again, the difference is trivialised. The threat of radiation is trivialised. Same with microgravity. Same with shelter, food, mental health, reproductive health… and so on. And if Earth is "doomed" because of our mistakes, then these "interplantary species" humans will only outlast their mother world by a few months. Once the last supply ship is gone and it's cargo finished, the "interplantary species" will too be finished.

My feelings are that the governments and space agencies of the world should come together to give a clear message that space colonization is neither possible or practical with current or near-mature technology, nor is it a desirable project. It should be made clear that no private colonization effort will have any legality or legitimacy. We should work toward a system similar to the Antarctic Treaty System to be applied to all celestial bodies – limiting human activity to scientific/academic research and conservation only, as well as setting up clear standards for non-contamination of these worlds, and of absolute protection for any life identified.
Wow, I agree COMPLETELY with what you've said!:)
 
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